Remember when your mate swore he was "definitely" running a marathon this year, bought the trainers, signed up to a training app, told everyone at the pub, and then quietly never mentioned it again? That's Bank of America right now. Except instead of a marathon, the race in question was a string of Bank of England interest-rate hikes. And instead of just going quiet, BofA Global Research has formally pulled the plug, telling clients it no longer expects the BoE to raise rates this year at all.

For months, hike forecasts like this one were treated as a near-certainty across the market. So watching one of the biggest names on Wall Street quietly reverse course isn't just a footnote — it's the kind of call that makes other forecasters check their own spreadsheets twice.

On 25 June 2026, Bank of America Global Research scrapped its forecast for further Bank of England rate hikes this year. The bank pointed to three things: inflation easing faster than expected, lower energy prices taking pressure off household bills, and a UK economic outlook that's looking noticeably softer than it did when the original hike call was made.

This matters because BofA wasn't a fringe voice shouting "rates are going up!" into the void. It was one of the major Wall Street forecasters whose calls get baked into market expectations, mortgage pricing assumptions, and the general vibe around UK borrowing costs. When a forecaster of that size does a 180, it doesn't just change one bank's spreadsheet — it nudges the whole conversation about where UK rates are headed next.

If you run a business, this is the kind of headline that's easy to scroll past, that is until you remember that interest-rate expectations quietly shape almost everything around you. Your business loan pricing, your mortgage if you're house-hunting, your suppliers' borrowing costs that get passed on to you eventually (they always do, somehow). A reversal like this one suggests the "rates keep climbing" narrative that's been hanging over UK business planning for ages might be losing its grip.

For founders and SMEs specifically, this is a signal worth filing away rather than acting on overnight. One forecaster changing its mind isn't a guarantee the Bank of England will follow suit, but it is a sign that the inflation and energy-price data is moving in a direction that makes further hikes harder to justify. If you've been pricing your 2026 plans around rates staying high or climbing further, this is your nudge to revisit those assumptions (quietly, no need to announce it to the whole team like your marathon-training mate did).

So no, the Bank of England hasn't actually done anything yet and its worth noting that this is a forecaster changing its tune, not a rate cut landing in your account. But when Wall Street's hike narrative starts wobbling, it's usually worth paying attention to what's wobbling it. Keep an eye on the data, not the drama. The trainers are back in the cupboard for now.

— The Business Index Team