Kevin Warsh stood at the podium on Wednesday and did something almost nobody expected from a brand-new Fed chair on his biggest day yet: he said less than he could have.
The Federal Open Market Committee held its benchmark interest rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% for a fourth consecutive meeting, a move markets had priced in with near certainty. CME FedWatch put the probability of no change at roughly 96% heading into the decision. The number was never the story. The story was what Warsh would do with the microphone afterward, in his first press conference as chairman, with inflation running at its hottest pace in three years and a president who handpicked him publicly hoping for the opposite.
He gave almost nothing away. The Fed's dot plot showed nine of 18 officials projecting the federal funds rate would finish 2026 above the current 3.5%-3.75% range — and Warsh's own projection appeared to be missing from the chart entirely. For a man who has spent over a decade arguing the Fed talks too much, withholding his own forecast on his first day in the job wasn't an oversight. It was the argument, made in real time.
