Good morning. There's a particular kind of quiet that settles over markets when everyone's waiting for someone else to blink first. That was yesterday. Central bankers gathered on European soil to trade notes on inflation and independence, trade negotiators watched a decades-old handshake deal quietly reset its clock, and courts on two continents reminded Big Tech that dominance has a price tag. Meanwhile, money kept moving anyway — into AI infrastructure, into IPOs, into whatever comes next. It was a day that felt less like a single headline and more like several tectonic plates shifting a few millimetres at once, each one small on its own, all of them adding up to something bigger by dinner time. Coffee up. Let's get into it.
CENTRAL BANKER, ZERO CHILL
Warsh Tells Europe He Won't Budge On Inflation
Kevin Warsh made his first appearance as Fed Chair on the international stage yesterday, telling a room of central bankers in Portugal that anyone hoping he'll go soft on inflation will be "disappointed." He reaffirmed the 2% target, defended the Fed's independence from political pressure, and pointedly refused to hint at where rates go next. He also flagged a broader rethink of how the Fed operates in an economy being reshaped by artificial intelligence. Translation: the new boss wants everyone to stop guessing and start watching the data, same as he does.
HANDSHAKE DEAL, TEN-YEAR NOTICE
US Lets North America's Trade Deal Drift Toward Expiry
The United States declined to renew the USMCA trade deal in its current form yesterday, starting a ten-year countdown to the pact's expiration in 2036 unless Washington, Mexico City and Ottawa can agree on something new first. The Trump administration argues the current deal hasn't done enough to shrink the trade deficit or bring manufacturing home, and wants tougher rules around cars and market access. Nothing changes today. But every business with a supply chain crossing a North American border just got a lot more reasons to build in a contingency plan.
TODAY’S MUST READS
⚖️ Sweden Hands Google a $1.5 Billion Antitrust Bill
A Swedish court ordered Google to pay roughly $1.5 billion to Klarna-owned PriceRunner yesterday, ruling the search giant abused its market dominance by favouring its own shopping comparison tool over rivals. It's the largest antitrust payout in Swedish history and follows an earlier EU finding against Google's practices. Google disagrees and plans to appeal, so nobody's cashing a cheque anytime soon. Still, it's a reminder to any business built on top of a dominant platform: the rules of the road can change, and sometimes years later, someone sends the bill.
🎬 Paramount Sweetens Its Offer to Save Mega-Merger
Paramount Skydance offered EU regulators a fresh set of concessions yesterday to smooth its $110 billion takeover of Warner Bros. Discovery, reportedly including winding down its film distribution partnership with Universal. Brussels hasn't confirmed the details but pushed its review deadline to 22 July to weigh the offer. The mega-deal still faces legal pushback from several US states and separate scrutiny in the UK. Every concession here is a signal: even the biggest media marriages now come with lawyers circling on three continents.
🤖 Together AI Doubles Its Valuation Overnight
Together AI raised $800 million yesterday at an $8.3 billion valuation, more than doubling its worth in one funding round. Aramco Ventures led the raise, with Nvidia, Vista Equity Partners and General Catalyst also writing cheques. The company lets businesses train and run open-source AI models like DeepSeek and Kimi more cheaply than building it all themselves. As the AI arms race gets pricier by the week, Together AI is betting the real money is in being the toolkit everyone else builds on.
🛴 Lime Scoots Onto Nasdaq With an 8% Pop
Uber-backed micromobility firm Lime rode a strong Nasdaq debut yesterday, with shares jumping 8% on day one to value the electric scooter company at roughly $1.73 billion. The IPO raised around $174 million, a welcome sign of life for a listings market that's been cautious lately. Lime now operates in more than 230 cities and posted solid revenue growth last year — but it's still not profitable. Investors clearly liked the story. Whether they'll still like it once the growth slows is the real test.
THE DAILY BUSINESS INDEX
A daily score of business conditions (scored out of 100), with a breakdown of what’s driving it.
Todays Score: 52.5 (-0.2)
The Daily Business Index held almost steady at 52.5 today, barely shifting from yesterday's 52.7, as a wave of global factory data offset a modest pullback on Wall Street. Manufacturers from the US to Japan reported ongoing growth, oil extended its worst quarterly slide since 2020 on continuing US-Iran talks in Doha, and a soft private payrolls report set the stage for Thursday's big US jobs release. Markets are holding their breath rather than picking a direction.
THIS TIME, LAST YEAR
Musk and Trump's Feud Wiped Billions Off Tesla
A year ago this week, Donald Trump threatened to strip Elon Musk's companies of their federal subsidies after Musk tore into the president's tax and spending bill, and Tesla shares sank as much as 6% on the news. The bill went on to kill the $7,500 EV tax credit anyway, and the Trump-Musk relationship never really recovered. It's a useful reminder that in this economy, a single social media post can still move a $400 billion company before breakfast — no earnings call required.
LOST IN TRANSLATION
‘Forward guidance’
What it means: This is central-bank speak for hinting at what interest rates might do next, so markets can prepare instead of guessing. Central banks used to lean on it heavily to calm nerves and steer expectations. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh pointedly avoided giving any yesterday, which is itself a kind of signal — the new regime wants markets reacting to data, not to hints dropped at a European conference.
READER POLL
The US just let a decade-old trade deal drift toward a slow expiration instead of renewing it outright. Good call or a needless headache for businesses?
Days like yesterday don't hand you one big story to remember — they hand you six smaller ones that all point the same direction. Institutions drawing lines in the sand. Regulators sending bills for old sins. Money still chasing the next big thing, deals still getting done, even with uncertainty sitting at the table. That's business right now: nothing fully resolved, everything moving. Keep half an eye on all of it and you'll be fine.
Right, that's your two minutes — go build something, break nothing, and we'll see you back here tomorrow.
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