📰On The Record – 6th July 2026

OPEC+ agreed to pump another 188,000 barrels a day from August, its fifth straight monthly increase, as ships resumed moving through the Strait of Hormuz following the U.S.-Iran ceasefire. Saudi Arabia and Russia want their revenues back, and normalising exports suggested the region genuinely believes the crisis has passed. But there's a catch: the UAE keeps pumping beyond its quota and Iran's exports are rising too, adding barrels the group didn't officially agree to. Confidence in stability is good news. Confidence without discipline is how oil price wars start.

EasyJet said yes to a £5.5 billion takeover by U.S. investment firm Castlelake, at 690p a share, after turning down four earlier offers it called too cheap. The deal needs regulatory approval and a formal bid by 3 August, but the board is expected to recommend it. Castlelake wants to modernise the fleet and play a longer game than public markets usually allow. That a budget airline facing softer demand and fierce competition would rather answer to one owner than thousands of shareholders says plenty about how nervous the next few years of aviation might get.

Uber shelved most of its planned Uber Eats expansion across Europe, launching in just two of seven target markets, to focus on winning approval for its €8 billion bid for Delivery Hero's Foodpanda arm. The message: buying scale beats building it in a delivery market this brutal. For smaller food-tech players, it's a reminder that consolidation, not growth, is now the winning strategy.

Micron began building a $9.3 billion expansion in Hiroshima to make high-bandwidth memory chips that feed AI processors, backed by up to ¥500 billion in Japanese subsidies. Shipments start in 2028. It's a long bet that AI demand keeps climbing for years, and a reminder that governments are now happily bankrolling the infrastructure behind the boom.

Warren Buffett repeated his oldest lesson: markets are built to move money from the impatient to the patient. It's not a new idea, but it lands differently after a year of frantic AI stock swings and headline-driven trading. The takeaway for anyone running a business, not just a portfolio, is the same: discipline beats reaction.

A French court ordered LVMH's Bernard Arnault to pay €22.5 million in extra tax, overturning two earlier rulings in his favour over how a €50 million payment from a Belgian holding company was classified. Arnault plans to appeal. Even the world's richest are finding cross-border tax structures under closer, less forgiving scrutiny these days.

A daily score of business conditions (scored out of 100), with a breakdown of what’s driving it.

Today's Daily Business Index reads 51.7, up half a point, as markets reopened after the July 4th weekend to a split screen: the Dow hit a fresh record high while chip stocks kept sliding on questions over whether AI spending has outrun AI demand. Cheaper oil, thanks to easing Israel-Iran tensions, and a services sector still growing steadily gave the broader economy a quiet lift. The one wildcard: Japan's yen hit a 40-year low, raising the odds of central bank intervention that could rattle markets this week.

Wednesday brings the minutes from the Federal Reserve's June meeting, the first under new chair Kevin Warsh. He's already made clear he isn't keen on the dot-plot forecasting his predecessors loved, so this is the closest thing markets get to a look behind the curtain. With inflation still running hot and Warsh talking tough on price stability, investors want signals on whether the Fed sees rate rises or just more patience ahead. However it reads, expect it to set the tone for the rest of your week in markets.

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A year ago today, President Trump signed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act into law, locking in permanent 100% bonus depreciation and R&D expensing for businesses, alongside a bigger SALT deduction and new pass-through relief. It was billed as rocket fuel for growth. A year on, the debate hasn't cooled: bigger deficits, real business investment, and no clean verdict either way. If you're wondering why so many companies suddenly found room in the budget to expand this year, this bill is a good part of the answer.

What it means: When a publicly listed company is bought out and removed from the stock exchange, usually by a private equity firm or investment fund, so it no longer answers to public shareholders. It's exactly what's happening to easyJet right now under Castlelake's £5.5 billion offer — trading quarterly earnings pressure for a longer runway to make changes out of public view.