Pizza is having its worst year in recent memory. Coffee is having its best. And the connection between the two has nothing to do with taste.
A new mid-year outlook from Consumer Edge, released Friday, found that quick-serve coffee and snack chains — Starbucks, Dunkin', Dutch Bros, and 7 Brew — have grown sales nearly 6% year-to-date, even as total restaurant spending across the US has crept up just 1%. Quick-serve snack and beverage chains have seen sales rise nearly 6% so far this year, even as total restaurant sales are up just 1%. Pizza chains, meanwhile, are posting the industry's steepest declines, with brands like Papa John's and Pizza Hut losing ground as diners trade away from large, shareable meals.
The obvious read is that people are drinking more coffee. The real story is stranger, and more useful to anyone running a consumer brand right now: diners are substituting full meals with coffee, refreshers, and snacks they perceive as affordable treats, rather than simply spending less. They haven't cut their restaurant budget. They've redirected it toward something smaller that still feels like a win. Understanding why requires looking past the menu and into the psychology of a squeezed wallet.
