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DBI Today: 51.1 (+3.3)

Sometimes the news piles up so fast it feels like the universe is testing a screenwriter. Yesterday — the last trading session before Juneteenth shuts US markets for the day — Donald Trump and Iranian President Masud Pezeshkian signed a memorandum of understanding formally ending weeks of conflict and agreeing to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway through which roughly a fifth of the world's oil flows. Markets exhaled. The Daily Business Index — a 0–100 composite reading of global business conditions, where 50 is neutral — climbed to 51.1, its biggest single-day gain in weeks, and crossed back above the neutral line for the first time in a fortnight. But with the Federal Reserve now pointing squarely at a rate hike before year-end and shipping through Hormuz still not fully normalised, this is a relief rally with homework attached.

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