Oil is back above $90 a barrel after the US and Iran traded strikes near the Strait of Hormuz for the first time in a month, ending weeks of calm and reviving an energy shock businesses thought was fading. That alone would be a big story. But it lands days after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivered a surprisingly hawkish Jackson Hole speech, pushing the odds of a September rate hike from roughly a third to almost 60% — at the exact moment America's jobs market is quietly cracking. Add a blowout Nvidia earnings report and a widening gap between a strengthening Europe and a still-struggling China, and you get a business environment pulling in several directions at once.
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