Oil surged past $90 a barrel on Monday after the US and Iran exchanged strikes near the Strait of Hormuz for the first time in a month, reviving an energy shock businesses thought was fading. It landed just days after Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh delivered a surprisingly hawkish Jackson Hole speech, pushing the odds of a September rate hike from around a third to roughly 60%. That's an awkward combination: the Fed is leaning toward tightening at the exact moment America's jobs market is showing real strain. Add in a blowout Nvidia earnings report and a widening gap between a strengthening Europe and a still-struggling China, and you get a business environment sending genuinely mixed signals in several directions at once.
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